Project
Biofuels, especially ethanol, have been in political focus for the last couple of years, both internationally and in Denmark. For the European Union, the EU Biofuel Directive has set a target of 5.75% by 2010 for the biofuel share of transport fuels. This has resulted in a couple of projects examining the impacts of biofuel introduction, by looking at individual production processes or life-cycle analyses of single technology applications. However, no detailed analyses of the nationwide implications in terms of changes in emissions, land use and other environmental effects have been undertaken to date.
This project applies a scenario approach to investigate the abovementioned effects for Denmark. Three different transport fuel scenarios, a business-as-usual scenario, an EU policy scenario that adheres to the targets outlined in the EU Biofuel Directive and an impact-adapted scenario will be described. The impact-adapted scenario will incorporate the results of the two previous scenarios and outline a sustainable option for biofuel introduction in Denmark, taking into consideration and examining mitigation of, where possible, the negative implications for the environment and land use.
The scenario analyses will be undertaken by integrating eight different work packages covering areas such as scenario development, emission modelling, land-use modelling and socioeconomic and sociological analyses. The project supports training of future researchers by incorporating two Ph.D and one Post Doctoral programmes. The outcome of the project will be directly applicable in both political decision-making and in the determination of areas where future research efforts are needed. Project results will be disseminated to a broad audience of interested parties through articles in peer-reviewed international journals, popular articles and presentations at national and international conferences. In addition, a workshop with participation of national and international experts will be held to discuss intermediate findings. A project advisory board with participation of all relevant stakeholders, i.e. industries, research laboratories and political entities, will follow the project and thus ensure that the results are of both high scientific quality and practical importance.
The EU Biofuel Directive sets indicative targets for the biofuel share of transport energy demand in each Member State of 2% by the end of 2005 and 5.75% by 2010 (European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, 2003). Three liquid biofuel types have mostly been used as transport fuel: biodiesel, ethanol and methanol (Edwards et al 2006, IEA 2004). Here, biodiesel is used as a generic term for biofuels suitable for diesel engines, while the remaining two fuels are used in gasoline engines. There is strong growth in the use of biofuels globally, particularly in Brazil and the USA, as well as in demand for technological development and marketing of both vehicles and fuels, especially ethanol. In Germany biodiesel is widely used, mainly in order to secure supply of fuel for transport.
In Denmark, several projects have covered ethanol in the form of 1st and 2nd generation technologies - of which the latter can be based on a broader range of biomass inputs, incl. waste and residual products and is also envisaged to be of interest with respect to economics and utilisation efficiency. Globally, ethanol’s share of the biofuel market is an order of magnitude higher than that of biodiesel, with Brazil and the USA as the predominant markets. This is reinforced by the marketing of so-called flexible-fuel vehicles capable of running on a wide range of mixtures. The Danish government has argued for non-compliance with the EC targets on biofuels due to a preference for alternative use of the biomass in the electricity sector (Danish Energy Authority 2005).
Introduction of biofuels is potentially associated with a number of impacts on the environment and health – in the production phase as well as the utilisation phase (EEA 2006). Methods for integrated impact assessment of policies are increasingly demanded for the EU and national policies (CEC, 2002). Considerable research and development resources are provided to address specific fuels and technical solutions, both internationally and in Denmark. However, at the same time the foundation for decision-making is insufficient with regard to the assessment of alternative transportation fuels and alternative applications of biomass, e.g. for use in combined heat and power production.
The objective of this proposal is to carry out a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive analysis of the impacts of introducing biofuels in Denmark, by covering both application and resource sides and addressing a broad range of impacts, i.e. emissions, air quality, health aspects, resource use, land use, and economic and sociological aspects. The liquid biofuels, notably alcohols (ethanol, methanol) and biodiesel (primarily RME), covered in this research project are compared with conventional fossil fuels and with other main energy carriers. Of the latter, hydrogen has been covered by Partners in this application in the two projects HYSCENE (Environmental and Health Impact Assessment of Scenarios for Renewable Energy Systems with Hydrogen) and Renewable Fuel Passenger Car with funding from the Danish Board of Strategic Research. Outlooks and scenarios are seen as important tools for decision-making by, among others, the European Environment Agency (EEA, 2005). This has initiated research in the development of tools and methods for impact assessment of broader societal goals (Frederiksen et al., 2006, de Ridder 2005). This project will analyse different scenarios of biofuel utilisation in the transport sector by combining results from a total of eight different work packages as outlined below.
WPI, the scenarios of biofuel for transport and other purposes, underpins all the remaining work packages. A business-as-usual scenario and a policy scenario building on the implementation of the European Biofuel Directive produce outputs for the analysis of emissions (WP II) and the spatial land-use scenarios (WP VI) as well as the sociological analysis (WP VIII). The results of emission measurements (WP III and WP IV) are necessary for the scenario calculations in WP II and WP V. Emission estimates represent the basis for the analyses of the environmental and health impacts of transport (WP V), while land-use scenarios provide a basis for estimation of biomass potential and allocation as well as environmental impact of production, respectively (WPVI). These impacts provide, again, input to the welfare economic analyses (WPVII). Results from all eight work packages are used as input to the construction of a third, so-called impact-adapted, scenario that describes the biofuel potential in Denmark within predefined environmental limits.
WP I: Scenarios in a renewable energy system with biofuels as important energy carriers
Development options are analysed in scenarios to 2030, focusing on the two biofuels ethanol and biodiesel. The scenarios include a baseline and various biofuel scenarios. They will be based on input from official Danish reference forecasts for energy and transport (Danish Energy Authority 2005) and from state-of-the-art European transport biofuel scenario studies (e.g. Mantzon and Capros, 2006; Wakker et al 2005; Biofuels Research Advisory Council 2006). The main scenario is a realistic development, given present EC policies and resource assessments (CEC 2005). First, the biofuel share of transport energy will be in line with the Biofuel Directive, gradually rising to 5.75% in 2010(European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, 2003) . Beyond this, the biofuel share will grow to 8% by 2030, in line with the Commission’s estimate of biomass potential for transport fuels for the Biofuel Directive (CEC, 2001). The 2nd scenario is similar until 2010, but thereafter the share grows to reach 25% in 2030 – assuming that the EC target of 20% alternative fuels in 2020 is enhanced by 2030, and that this is met entirely by biofuels (CEC 2001). The two biofuels will be evenly distributed in both scenarios. The effects of the scenarios in terms of vehicle fleets, fuel mixes, kilometres driven, conversion technologies (e.g. 1st vs. 2nd generation bioethanol) and domestic vs. imported supply of biomass are explored. The impact assessments in WPII, WPV and WP VI will include alternative use of the biomass. Finally, an “impact-adapted scenario” is studied, in which the use of biofuels is adapted to given environmental limits (EEA 2006).
WP II: Emission inventories and projections
The use of biofuels instead of conventional fuels in the transport sector results in changes in production methods and related emissions. In addition, the tailpipe emissions from biofuelled vehicles may differ from those from vehicles using conventional fuels. To cover all emission sources, the emission impacts of using biofuels must be examined using a LCA approach (Bernesson, 2004). The aim of this work package is to quantify the total emissions from the scenarios described in WP I and, hence, assess the emission impact. Both direct tailpipe emissions and the emissions related to structural differences in fuel production methods are considered. The emission impact of alternative use of biofuels, e.g. in combined heat and power plants, will also be assessed. The actual emission calculations (Well to Wheel) are made for the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O (the CO2 emission share being by far the dominant part), and the acidifying emission components SO2, NOx, NMVOC and PM. Especially for NMVOC, the PAHs and carbonyls (including acetaldehydes) will be included in the calculations. For PM, detailed calculations will be carried out using particle number, size distribution and chemical composition, as measured in WP III. Specifically for biodiesel, the in-use deterioration of particulate filters will be incorporated in the calculations. For both stationary and mobile sources, historical and forecast emission models already developed at NERI will be used as a basis for the scenario calculations in the project(Illerup et al., 2002, Winther 2002) and, in addition, activity data from WP I and emission data from WP III will be incorporated in the emission model complex. Another important task will be to distribute emissions geographically. In this way, the calculated results from WP II serve as input for the environmental and health impact assessment in WP V and welfare economic analysis in WP VII.
WP III: Emission measurements and vehicle engine inspection test
Emissions of exhaust gases and PM, when using biodiesel versus conventional diesel fuels, are known to differ. Several studies show a decrease in PM emissions and an increase in NOx emissions when using biodiesel (e.g. EPA, 2002). The chemical composition of PM and size distribution of the particles may also depend on the particular fuel used. Exhaust emissions from pure gasoline and mixed gasoline/bio-ethanol fuels are known to be very similar as long as the ethanol fraction is low (<15%). Different mixing ratios affect the emissions, e.g. higher emissions of acetaldehyde using high-ethanol fuels have been observed (Claes de Serves, 2005). Due to the adverse health effects of PM and toxic organic compounds, it is important to carry out new measurements of these parameters. Also, the efficiency of particle filters may be influenced by increased emission of inorganic salts when using biodiesel. Testing with two modern diesel engines with different PM/NOx performance (different emission reduction methods) and a flexi-fuel gasoline engine with three-way catalyst will be performed on an engine test rig. Engine types expected to be typical in the car fleet over the next 10-20 years will be selected. Gases (CO, NOx, HC and VOCs including PAHs and carbonyls including acetaldehyde), particle-size distributions with/without removal of condensed particles, and the chemical composition of PM (organic compounds, including PAH and oxi-PAH and inorganic ions) will be measured (Palmgren, 2005), and the measurements will also be used to investigate the negative emission effects on particulate filter lifetimes. An important output of this work package will be qualified estimates of the emission factors to be used in the emission scenario calculations (WP II).
This work package will be organised as a PhD programme. The main objective of the PhD research will be to investigate the consequences for emissions of gaseous and particulate emissions from car engines as a result of the replacement of traditional fuels partly or totally with biofuels. Replacement of traditional fuels with biofuels will change the emissions both due to the different chemical composition of the fuel and to different combustion conditions. The idea is to follow the processes from the high temperature/pressure combustion in the engine, the transformation and filtration in the exhaust system. The focus will be on particles, organic pollutants and salts.
Experimental studies will include experiments with emission measurements on one or two engines with different fuels types: diesel and gasoline mixed with ethanol, methanol, biodiesel and bio-oil from pyrolysis processes. Models for particle formation and combustion in the engines will be established and simulations will be compared with experimental results.
The PhD study will be carried out in cooperation between the Department of Chemical Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), the Department of Atmospheric Environment, National Environment Research Institute (NERI) and the Department of Energy and Transport, Technological Institute. This is a unique opportunity to combine knowledge and facilities from the three institutes regarding: expertise in fundamental and applied research on high temperature processes, formation and control of harmful flue gas species and particulate matter, expertise in transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, human exposure and expertise and facilities for emissions measurements on vehicles on dynamometer test bench or on engine test rig, and expertise and facilities for ambient air and emissions measurements.
WP V: Environmental and health impact assessment
Health impact assessment of emissions from biofuels will be based on comparisons with emissions from conventional fuel. The health effects associated with particulate emissions are primarily cardiovascular as well as lung disease and lung cancer. The mechanisms involved are, however, to be related to inflammation and oxidative stress. The hazard data will be provided by means of toxicological assessment in vitro. WP V will compare particulate emissions sampled in WP III with respect to these mechanisms and outcome in organotypic cell cultures, representing the lung and cardiovascular system. Oxidative stress-induced DNA damage and gene expression responses, inflammation in terms of cytokine expression and expression of adhesion molecules will be measured. The data will be compared with our existing database on different particles, including two types of standard diesel exhaust from Copenhagen streets, from various types of wood smoke and inert carbon black particles.
Based on the hazard data and literature surveys, estimation of dose-response relationships related to biofuels will be provided for the health impact assessment. The environmental and health impacts of the defined scenarios will be described based on emission inputs from WPII, WPIII and the above studies. The environmental impacts of using biofuels will be described with focus on air quality, deposition, human exposure and public health. Both environmental and health impacts will be used as input to the socioeconomic analyses in WP VII.
The impacts of the different scenarios will be studied in case studies that reflect different geographic scales, from regional to local, using NERI’s existing air quality models (Brandt et al. 2001; Jensen et al. 2001). Key air quality indicators for air quality could be different particle parameters, CO and VOC, while for deposition it will be sulphur and nitrogen compounds. The results will also be related to WHO and EU air quality limit values, and to critical loads for various natural settings. Human exposure assessment will be carried out combining air pollution data with population data.
WP VI: Production of biomass, its spatial distribution and its impact on the environment
Higher demand for land for non-food products will increase competition for land in the future and may subsequently change the impact of agriculture on a range of environmental issues.The study will develop spatially-distributed non-food crop production (GIS-supported tools) (Rounsewell, 2006) based on the scenarios in WP I, which can serve as a basis for estimates of the potentially available biomass resource from agricultural crop production as well as associated environmental impact (Gyldenkærne et al. 2005).
The spatial land use will be based on data on current land use and animal production at farm level and a projected development for Danish agriculture (Gyldenkærne and Mikkelsen 2006). Data from the General Agricultural Register (GLR), the Central Husbandry Register (CHR) and the Danish Plant Directorate will be used to estimate the current and future production potentials, taking into account production potentials for crops and manure, afforestation and natural habitats. The resource estimates aim to provide a total picture of the resources into the different compartments. (Jørgensen et al. 2006, Gylling et al. 2001, Nord-Larsen & Heding 2003).
The impact of the land-use scenarios will be assessed in terms of effects on nutrient (nitrogen, phosphorus) and pesticide loads to terrestrial and aquatic environments and changes in carbon sequestration potential in biomass and soil. Changes in emissions to air will be calculated in WP II. Changes in carbon sequestration will be calculated with a dynamic 3-pooled soil model, C-TOOL (Petersen et al. 2003, Gyldenkærne et al. 2006).
The second part of WPVI contains a biomass potential assessment, using the land use patterns of the above scenarios as starting point. This assessment will estimate theoretical, technical and economical potentials and will, through the allocation of the biomass resources for different applications, serve as framework for the scenario analysis in WPI. The resource assessments are made for Denmark, but to assess the scope for import/export of biomass and biomass-derived products, the geographical context of Denmark will also be included in the analysis.
A PhD study will be incorporated in WP VI with the aim of developing environmentally beneficial scenarios of biomass production for biofuels. Spatial land-use scenarios which balance the demand for biomass production with environmental, nature and landscape protection in relation to the Water Framework Directive and the Habitat Directive will be developed.
WP VII: Welfare economic analyses of bio-fuel production and use
This work package proposes to undertake “well to wheel” analyses of different biofuel production processes in Denmark and the use of these biofuels in the Danish car fleet using both welfare economic and financial economic principles (Møller et al. (2000)). The welfare economic costs of production and use of biofuels (WP I – V) will be calculated and compared with a welfare economic evaluation of the environmental and health consequences (positive and negative) of producing and using biofuels. Also effects on the Danish agricultural landscape and related impacts will be included in the analyses as they are described in WP VI. Finally, the economic impact of increased energy security and income opportunities in remote agricultural areas will be examined. The economic analyses will focus on the different biofuel scenarios outlined in WP I and integrate the results from RISØ (2005), by comparing scenarios of investing in first generation biofuel producing technologies versus delaying investments until second generation production technologies are ready in Denmark.
Many promoters of e.g. biofuels and biogas have incorporated the argument of enhancing national energy supply security by increasing the share of biomass-based energy sources (European Union (2003)). Security of energy supply can be achieved through indigenous sources or by diversification of sources, or a combination of both. Valuation of a more secure energy supply, however, is a difficult issue (Constantini and Gracceva (2004), Energistyrelsen (2004; Carlsson and Martinsson (2006)). As part of WP VII, a Post-Doctoral project will investigate different possibilities of valuing the security of energy supply, focusing both on the costs of avoiding energy shortages and the valuation of the social costs associated with energy system failures based on different non-market valuation techniques. Results from this project will be directly applicable in the scenario analyses described before and in the more general planning and evaluation of investments in energy supply networks.
WP VIII: Sociological aspects of scenarios for bio fuels in the transport system
It is important to analyse social and cultural aspects in an integrated environmental assessment of biofuels. New modes of transport are always developed on the basis of existing practices of transport/mobility in everyday life (Jensen 2006). There could be potential for new transport practices in connection with implementation of new technology, e.g. biofuels. In a modern risk society (Beck 1992), every new technology is contested and this could also be expected in the case of biofuels. Thus, there could also be barriers to the use of biofuels if it is considered a threat to environment, health or other issues important to people. Therefore, we will investigate both the potential for and the barriers to a shift from conventional fuels to biofuels. We, thus, ask the following overall questions: How will biofuels influence day-to-day transport and the view on travelling, as such? And how and in which way will they be considered a risk? These questions will be examined through a) an analysis of focus group interviews where the respondents are introduced to different scenarios of transport means using new biofuels and b) an analysis of narratives about travel collected through individual interviews. In sociology and in social sciences as such, mobility is a fairly new topic and an explorative methodology such as the qualitative analysis will make an appropriate means to shed light on the issues, also in the case of the proposed research. The scenarios will be developed in cooperation with the other work packages and will give input here as well.
The project builds on a solid foundation of internationally renowned experts in the fields of natural science and engineering, economics and sociology. By describing and analysing the different scenarios, the project will contribute to the scientific debate on biofuels in Denmark with coordinated inputs based on emissions projections, including the effects of combustion processes of technologies under development, health effects, descriptions of costs and benefits for society and a better understanding of the perception of biofuel use in transport. With its cross-disciplinary and integrated assessment approach, results from this project will provide a solid foundation for the national and European policy process.